Bitcoin Outlook Update: BTC Extends Correction as Hawkish Fed Signals Pressure Risk Assets

The minutes reflected greater division among members of the Federal Open Market Committee. While some officials see room to resume rate cuts if inflation continues to moderate toward the 2% target, others did not rule out further hikes should price pressures remain persistent. This wider range of potential scenarios reduced visibility for investors and raised the risk premium, particularly affecting high-beta assets such as Bitcoin.

In price terms, the cryptocurrency has remained volatile after rebounding from the area near $60,000 last week. It is currently trading within a broad range, facing technical resistance around $70,000 and showing intermediate support near $64,000–$65,000. The inability to consolidate above key psychological levels has reinforced short-term caution.

The macroeconomic backdrop has also influenced market sentiment. Recent moderation in some inflation indicators has not been sufficient to solidify the narrative of imminent rate cuts, especially as the labor market remains resilient. The combination of still-solid growth and persistent price pressures keeps the Federal Reserve in a cautious stance, limiting liquidity flows into alternative assets.

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have further increased demand for traditional safe-haven assets. In this context, gold has shown greater relative strength, attracting defensive flows, while Bitcoin has lagged. This behavior suggests that during periods of heightened uncertainty, the cryptocurrency has yet to fully establish itself as a substitute for precious metals in institutional portfolios.

Another relevant factor has been the recent divergence between Bitcoin and technology stocks. Although it has historically shown correlation with growth indices, the rebound in certain tech names failed to lift the crypto market consistently. This may indicate that investors are increasingly differentiating between traditional equity risk and exposure to digital assets in a potentially higher-for-longer rate environment.

On the institutional front, comments from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon added nuance to the outlook. The executive stated that he maintains very limited exposure to Bitcoin. However, he acknowledged that the firm continues to monitor developments in the sector closely and could expand its involvement if the regulatory framework becomes clearer and more predictable. Such remarks reflect latent interest from major institutions, still constrained by regulatory uncertainty.

From a structural perspective, the crypto market is undergoing a transitional phase. The consolidation following record highs and the nearly 50% adjustment from the October peak have removed part of the speculative excess accumulated during the previous rally. However, the future direction will largely depend on the evolution of U.S. real rates, dollar dynamics, and geopolitical developments.

In conclusion, Bitcoin is navigating an adjustment phase amid macroeconomic caution and uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy. As long as the Federal Reserve keeps the possibility of higher rates for longer on the table, risk appetite will likely remain constrained. Nevertheless, institutional interest and the current technical consolidation could lay the groundwork for renewed momentum once greater clarity emerges on inflation, interest rates, and regulation, key factors that will define the market’s trajectory in the coming weeks.