CAD to PHP Forecast 2026-2030: Prediction and Analysis

1. CAD/PHP Forecast

CAD to PHP forecasts broadly indicate a range of stability through 2026, followed by a gradual downside bias into 2027 and beyond.

Average CAD PHP forecast projections cluster around the 41.0–43.5 range in early 2026, reflecting offsetting forces between Canada’s late cycle slowdown and resilient Philippine growth.

These CAD to PHP forecasts emerges as the Bank of Canada approaches policy normalization, while the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas maintains a restrictive stance for longer.

The resulting yield compression limits sustained CAD strength against the Peso, anchoring the CAD to PHP within a narrow valuation corridor.

2. CAD to PHP exchange rate

The CAD to PHP exchange rate has historically exhibited low directional momentum and muted volatility. This behavior reflects the pair’s indirect construction through USD/CAD and USD/PHP rather than organic bilateral flows.

Over recent cycles, CAD/PHP movements have been driven by shifts in US dollar liquidity, global risk appetite, and emerging market flows. As a result, the Canadian Dollar vs. the Philippine Peso has traded more as a relative-value instrument than as a growth-sensitive currency pair.

Source: TradingView

3. Short Term Forecast CAD/PHP (next week and next month)

Near-term CAD to PHP forecast expectations point to consolidation around current levels of 42-43. The CAD to PHP exchange rate forecast remains sensitive to US dollar fluctuations rather than domestic Canadian or Philippine data surprises.

In the coming weeks, modest upside risks exist if USD/PHP softens faster than USD/CAD amid improving risk of sentiment. However, despite a clear break in the US dollar direction, the CAD to PHP rate forecast is likely to remain in range bound.

4. Medium Term Forecast CAD/PHP (3-6 months)

Medium-term CAD to PHP forecast projections suggest mild appreciation pressure into mid-2026. Institutional forecasts cluster between 41.4 and 42.7 by June and September 2026, driven by gradual easing expectations in the Philippines later in the cycle.

Despite this, the Canadian Dollar strength remains constrained by slowing domestic momentum and softer assumptions on commodity prices. The forecast CAD to PHP reflects balance rather than trend acceleration during this horizon.

5. Long Term Forecasts CAD/PHP (Next 5 Years)

Below is a summary of selected CAD to PHP forecast projections from major global financial institutions through 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030.

5.1. CAD to PHP Forecast 2026

Forecasts for 2026 show a wide but stable valuation range for the CAD to PHP. By March 2026, projections span from 41.18 at Credit Agricole to 42.39 at ING, reflecting differing assumptions around US dollar softness and Philippine monetary rigidity.

By December 2026, dispersion increased, with ING and MUFG projecting levels above 43.3, while DBS and Westpac remain closer to 41.2. This divergence highlights uncertainty about the timing of Philippine rate cuts relative to Canada’s deceleration in growth.

5.2. CAD to PHP Forecast 2027

The PHP to CAD forecast for 2027 leans toward a gradual depreciation of the Canadian Dollar. DBS maintains relative stability near 41.7, while Westpac projects a steady decline toward 39.8 by year-end.

This split reflects contrasting views on emerging-market capital inflows and the strength of Philippine domestic demand. On balance, the CAD to PHP peso forecast tilts modestly lower through 2027.

5.3. CAD to PHP Forecast 2028

Longer-term CAD to PHP forecasts narrows again in 2028. Westpac places the pair between 40.1 and 40.4, indicating a lower equilibrium level compared to 2026.

This adjustment reflects assumptions of structurally stronger Philippine growth and normalization of Canadian terms of trade. The CAD to PHP forecast, therefore, transitions from cyclical balance to mild structural re-pricing.

5.4. CAD to PHP Forecast 2029

For 2029, limited projections suggest renewed stability. DBS maintains a steady estimate near 41.2, implying that earlier pressures may have played out.

This forecast assumes a mature global cycle with reduced policy divergence. As a result, CAD to PHP forecast is expected to trade within a compressed range rather than resume directional moves.

5.5. CAD to PHP Forecast 2030

By 2030, DBS projects the CAD to PHP near 41.2. This level suggests long-term anchoring rather than a continuation of the trend.

Accordingly, the exchange rate CAD to PHP forecast for 2030 should be interpreted as a structural midpoint rather than a directional signal. Long-run valuation will remain sensitive to global liquidity and US dollar dominance.

6. Fundamental Outlook Monthly, Quarterly, Annually

From a Canadian perspective, slowing growth and cooling inflation reduce the scope for sustained currency strength. The Bank of Canada’s policy path appears closer to neutral, limiting yield support for the Canadian Dollar.

In contrast, the Philippines continues to benefit from robust domestic demand and favorable demographics. This asymmetry underpins medium-term support for the Peso within CAD PHP forecasts.

7. Historical patterns CAD/PHP (Last 5 Years)

Over the past five years, CAD PHP has exhibited limited trend persistence and episodic spikes in volatility. Global shocks rather than domestic fundamentals drove major movements.

Seasonally, volatility tends to increase (wider return swing) during periods of global risk repricing, particularly when US yields and oil prices move sharply. Outside these episodes, the CAD to PHP has historically reverted to mean levels.

Source: TradingView

8. CAD to PHP Currency Driving Factors

8.1. Economic drivers: Does trade really matter here?

Trade flows between Canada and the Philippines are relatively modest and have a limited impact on the CAD/PHP exchange rate. In 2023, Canada exported about $1.06 billion to the Philippines, primarily in meat, cereals, ores, and wood products, while the Philippines exported $1.59 billion to Canada, led by electrical machinery and precious metals, according to OEC data.

The total bilateral merchandise trade reached $3.4 billion in 2023. Despite deepening institutional ties and Canada’s investment of around $844 million in the Philippines, these trade volumes are too small to influence currency dynamics significantly. Instead, CAD/PHP fluctuations are primarily driven by domestic monetary policy, growth differentials, capital flows, and global risk sentiment.

8.2. Interest rates and yield differentials

Interest rate differentials might play a role in shaping forecasts for the exchange rate between the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and the Philippine Peso (PHP). As Canada moves closer to easing interest rates to stimulate growth, the Philippines continues to maintain a more restrictive monetary stance. This restrictive environment in the Philippines is essential for anchoring inflation expectations and controlling price levels.

The current yield structure, which reflects higher interest rates in the Philippines relative to Canada, creates a favorable scenario for the Peso when adjusted for carry trade strategies. As a result, investors may find the Peso more attractive, adding downward pressure on the value of the Canadian Dollar against the Philippine Peso over time.

Source: TradingView

8.3. Risk sentiment and global liquidity.

Global risk appetite significantly influences the pricing of the CAD/PHP exchange rate. When the U.S. dollar weakens, both the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Philippine peso (PHP) can rise, but the peso often performs better due to an influx of capital.

On the other hand, during periods of heightened risk aversion, the CAD/PHP exchange rate typically decreases not just because of weakness in the Canadian dollar, but more because of stronger dynamics between the U.S. dollar and the Philippine peso.

9. Upcoming Economic Events

10. Technical Outlook Canadian Dollar vs Philippine Peso

Technically, on the daily timeframe, the pair is facing resistance from the premium zone between 42.910 - 43.019, within the context of a dominant bullish market structure characterized by a sequence of consecutively higher higher highs and higher lows.

The price had previously broken above the prior higher high at 42.943, triggering a bullish Break of Structure (BoS).

A breakout above the current resistance zone could strengthen the bullish trend, potentially targeting the Fibonacci extension levels at 43.29 - 43.48.

Conversely, the upward trend is likely to experience a bearish correction. This pullback could extend to the supportive bullish order block below, located between 42.452 - 42.778.

On the downside, if buyers fail to defend this critical demand zone, it could deepen the corrective move and trigger a Change of Character (CHoCH), signaling a shift to a bearish trend. This, in turn, would shift sellers' focus toward the 41.243 - 41.400 support levels.

(Chart powered by TradingView. Charts are for educational and illustrative purposes only and may differ from live trading prices on our platform.)

Disclaimer: The chart reflects the analyst's opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Seek independent advice before making decisions.

11. Bullish, Base, and Bearish scenarios

12. Correlation Check

The CAD / PHP exchange rate shows its strongest positive correlation with oil prices at 70.27%, underscoring the Canadian dollar’s continued sensitivity to energy markets even when viewed through a cross-currency lens.

Source: TradingView

A solid positive relationship with MSCI Emerging Markets Asia at 56.39% further reflects the Peso’s exposure to regional risk sentiment and capital flows, which tend to move in tandem with broader Asian equity performance.

Together, these correlations indicate that CAD / PHP often strengthens when global growth expectations improve, and commodity demand supports energy prices.

By contrast, the pair displays a pronounced negative correlation with USD / CAD at -57.27%, confirming that US dollar movements remain a dominant transmission channel for CAD to PHP forecast.

The negative relationship with the yield spread at -25.96% suggests that widening interest rate differentials have not consistently favored the Canadian dollar in this cross, while the near-zero correlation with the TSX at -1.18% highlights the limited role of domestic Canadian equities.

Source: TradingView

13. Risk Factors

Changes in Philippine monetary policy can significantly influence forecasts of the CAD to PHP exchange rate. Additionally, a more pronounced slowdown in the Canadian economy may apply further pressure on this currency pair.

Moreover, geopolitical events that affect global liquidity or the demand for the US dollar are critical factors contributing to the uncertainty in these forecasts.

It's important to note that longer-term projections generally entail greater estimation risk.

14. Conclusion: Analyst View For CAD/PHP

The forecasts for the CAD to PHP exchange rate suggest a period of stability in 2026, with expectations of gradual downward pressure thereafter.

In the medium term, the Philippine Peso is expected to benefit from favorable yield differentials and relative economic growth.

Additionally, the movements in the CAD to PHP exchange rate are primarily influenced by global monetary cycles rather than the specifics of bilateral trade between the two countries.