Technical outlook for gold prices between a sharp correction and a major breakout: Will it break 4800 or return to 3800?

The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows that the price is currently in a clear corrective phase after failing to hold above the recent high near 5400, entering an organized downward wave that retested key Fibonacci levels. From my perspective, breaking the 0.618 level and moving toward the 0.786 zone reflects short-term bullish momentum weakness, especially with a price structure resembling a corrective (ABC) pattern. Additionally, the price consolidating within the shaded area indicates a critical demand zone that could determine the next directional move.

I see the current zone between 4550 and 4450 as an important market equilibrium point, where horizontal support intersects with a deep Fibonacci retracement, increasing the likelihood of a technical rebound toward 5100 and then 5300 if clear buying momentum emerges. The positive scenario I favor requires the price to hold above this zone, supported by improvements in momentum indicators, which currently show an oversold condition, potentially driving the price to retest the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci levels in the short term.

On the other hand, the negative scenario cannot be ignored: a clear break below 4450 would confirm the continuation of the correction toward 4220 as the first target, potentially extending to 4000 if selling pressure accelerates. In my view, the overall trend remains bullish in the medium term as long as the price trades above the ascending moving average, but the short-term phase is sensitive and requires clear price confirmation before taking any new positions.

Supports: 4450 – 4220 – 4000

Resistances: 4800 – 5100 – 5400.