Technical Outlook for Silver Prices (XAGUSD) under Federal Reserve Pressure and Geopolitical Support: Who Will Determine the Next Trend?

The 4-hour chart of silver (XAGUSD) shows clear selling pressure after the price failed to hold above the 90.00 area, forming a descending peak followed by a deep corrective wave that brought the price back to the 80.00 level. The current movement reflects a short-term bearish structure, particularly as the price trades below the moving average, reinforcing the negative outlook. Moreover, breaking the 0.50 Fibonacci level and approaching 0.618 confirms weak bullish momentum, indicating that the market remains under sellers’ control at present.

From a technical standpoint, a harmonic pattern has completed near point D around the 78.00–79.00 area, a significant demand zone that temporarily halted the decline. This price reaction coincides with a momentum indicator rebound from oversold conditions, opening the possibility for a limited upward correction. However, this potential rally should still be considered corrective unless there is a clear breakout and sustained trading above 84.30, where the moving average converges with a key Fibonacci level.

In the most likely scenario, we may see an attempt to rise toward 84.30 and then 86.00, but any failure to break these zones would resume selling pressure back toward 80.00 and then 78.00. A clear break below 78.00 could extend the decline toward lower levels near 76.00. Overall, the short-term trend remains bearish with limited corrective upside, making range-bound trading while monitoring for breakouts the most probable scenario.

Support levels: 80.00 – 78.00 – 76.00

Resistance levels: 84.30 – 86.00 – 90.00