Technical Outlook for Silver: Cautious Recovery in XAGUSD Amid Dollar Weakness & Geopolitical Risks

The daily chart of silver (XAGUSD) shows that price is moving within a bearish corrective phase following a strong bullish wave that peaked near the 120 level. The market has entered a clear corrective structure resembling a harmonic pattern, with the final leg completing near a defined demand zone. From my perspective, the area around 62–65 represents a key support range, as it aligns with a previous price rebound and coincides with an ascending moving average, increasing the likelihood of a short-term bullish reaction from this zone.

From a technical standpoint, price is currently trading near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, a zone that often signals important shifts in trend direction. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator is gradually exiting oversold territory, supporting the scenario of a temporary technical rebound. However, in my view, this rebound is likely to remain limited unless price manages to break above the 75–78 zone and hold above it, as this area represents a dynamic resistance where previous highs intersect with key retracement levels.

If price fails to hold the current support zone, a clear break below 62 could open the door for a deeper decline toward 55 and then 50. This scenario cannot be ruled out given the continued underlying pressures. Overall, I believe the short- to medium-term trend remains sideways with a bearish bias, while any bullish scenario depends on breaking key resistance levels that would confirm a return of upward momentum.

Support: 62.30 – 55.00 – 50.00

Resistance: 75.00 – 90.00 – 100.00