XRP Outlook Update: Token Trades in a Decisive Zone as Markets Reprice 2026 Expectations

The adjustment responds to a shift in risk appetite and a reassessment of institutional expectations. The market is no longer pricing in an immediate parabolic move, but rather a more gradual process conditioned by global liquidity. Despite the pullback, the structural narrative linked to asset tokenization and the expansion of the blockchain ecosystem continues to provide long-term support.

On the institutional front, several 2026 projections have been revised downward, reflecting a more cautious short- and medium-term outlook. However, estimates toward the end of the decade still maintain significantly higher targets, supported by projected growth in stablecoins, regulated digital assets, and distributed financial technology solutions.

XRP-backed ETFs, which reached approximately $1.6 billion in assets under management at the beginning of 2026 following key regulatory developments in 2025, have declined toward the $1.0 billion area. This reduction aligns with the price decline and tactical capital outflows, rather than structural deterioration of the instrument. The ETF structure remains an important bridge between institutional capital and the crypto market.

In the short term, the main catalyst is the U.S. PCE inflation data. A weaker reading could weigh on the dollar and favor risk assets such as XRP, potentially pushing it toward $1.60 or higher levels. Conversely, a stronger print would reinforce expectations of higher rates for longer, increasing downside pressure toward $1.35 and even $1.20.

From a technical standpoint, the daily trend remains bearish, with a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows within a channel that began in July 2025. The $1.35–$1.50 range acts as a key equilibrium zone. A sustained breakout above $1.47–$1.50 would be the first sign of recovery, with potential toward $1.70–$1.76.

Otherwise, failure to hold the current zone could extend the move toward the channel's lower boundary, near $1.00. That level represents not only significant technical support but also a psychological threshold that determines whether the corrective cycle continues or a new consolidation phase begins.

At the structural level, regulatory improvements in 2025 enabled greater institutional participation and the development of infrastructure for custody and tokenization. However, XRP's performance remains highly correlated with the global macroeconomic cycle and the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

In conclusion, XRP is not in a comfortable position, but it does not show irreversible structural deterioration either. From current levels near $1.40, the risk-reward profile may favor tactical strategies, as long as the price remains above $1.00. A decisive break below that level would invalidate the constructive scenario and require waiting for a new accumulation base before projecting a more sustained bullish cycle.