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ファンダメンタル分析とは何か

Fundamental analysis is one of the basic analytical methods used by investors and traders to understand the factors that truly drive the value of an asset.

In this first lesson, we will explain what fundamental analysis is, how it differs from technical analysis, and why it continues to be the foundation of wise, long-term investing.

Understanding fundamental analysis

The essence of fundamental analysis lies in determining the intrinsic value , or true value , of an asset based on measurable data, rather than market noise .

This means analyzing the underlying factors that influence a company's performance and a country's economy.

These factors include a wide range of items, from corporate profits and debt levels to GDP growth rates and inflation trends.

For example, suppose a company's stock is trading at $ 50 per share. However, after analyzing its sales, profits, and market growth potential, you might conclude that its intrinsic value is $ 70 per share.

This difference between "price" and "value" creates investment opportunities.

When the market finally recognizes the true value of a company, its stock price is likely to rise, and investors who recognized its value early on will be rewarded.

Fundamental analysis aims to uncover these opportunities by focusing on facts rather than emotions.

It focuses more on understanding why the price is formed in the first place, rather than predicting the price for next week.

The Mechanism of Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis is based on the simple principle that the market price of an asset will eventually reflect its intrinsic value .

However, in the short term, prices are affected by factors such as speculation, excessive expectations, and fear, resulting in temporary distortions.

Depending on the type of asset being analyzed, analysts evaluate a wide range of information.

• For stocks: We analyze the company's financial statements, profit growth rate, industry environment, and the quality of its management team.

• For currency ( FX ): We analyze economic indicators such as interest rates, inflation rates, and trade balances.

• For bonds: We focus on credit ratings, interest rate forecasts, and fiscal stability.

By combining this data, we can create a clear overall picture of the assets' financial condition and long-term outlook.

This process does not rely on a single formula; rather, it is crucial to connect multiple signals to arrive at well-founded conclusions.

Essential Value: The Core of Fundamental Analysis

The concept of intrinsic value is central to this method. It indicates the inherent value of an investment, separate from its current market price.

Let's look at a simple example.

If a company generates stable profit growth, keeps its debt low, and operates in a growing industry, its intrinsic value is likely to increase over time.

However, when market sentiment deteriorates and investors sell their stocks for emotional reasons, stock prices can fall below their intrinsic value.

Experienced analysts see this as an investment opportunity, and if they determine that the price is below value, they will hold onto the stock until the market corrects.

For this reason, fundamental analysis is often associated with value investing . This strategy was popularized by prominent investors such as Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham , who believed that those who understand fundamentals and invest patiently are superior to trend-following investors.

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis

One of the most common questions beginners have is, "What is the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis?"

These two analytical methods complement each other, but their purposes differ.

• Fundamental analysis focuses on why prices move, analyzing financial conditions, profits, interest rates, economic growth, and other factors to estimate fair value. It takes a long-term perspective and answers the question, "Is this asset worth investing in?"

• Technical analysis focuses on how prices move, analyzing charts, volume, and market patterns to determine buying and selling timing. It answers the question, "When should I buy, and when should I sell?" from a shorter-term perspective.