Bitcoin Pulls Back from $74,000 as Macro Momentum Gradually Weakens

In the past week, Bitcoin traded relatively positively as the market welcomed lower-than-expected inflation data. Specifically, CPI YoY came in at 3.3%, below the forecast of 3.4%, while the core PCE index remained unchanged at 0.4% month-over-month. These figures somewhat helped ease concerns over persistent inflation pressures, thereby triggering a “risk-on” sentiment and supporting risk assets, including Bitcoin.

In addition to macro factors, ETF flows also played a short-term supportive role, recording two consecutive sessions of inflows toward the end of the week (Thursday and Friday). This indicates that institutional demand has not fully withdrawn from the market, thereby providing additional momentum for Bitcoin to approach the key resistance zone around $74,000.

However, it is important to recognize that this positive reaction is driven more by short-term factors rather than a structural shift. Although lower than expected, inflation overall remains at a relatively high level, particularly as energy prices continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical factors. This continues to limit expectations for an early policy easing by the Fed.

As the market gradually absorbs the information, the focus quickly returns to the scenario of interest rates remaining higher for longer. This is a structural factor that directly impacts global liquidity and the valuation of risk assets. In such an environment, rallies often struggle to sustain, especially in the absence of a sufficiently strong catalyst from both macro conditions and capital flows.

From a broader perspective, Bitcoin is currently being simultaneously affected by multiple constraining factors: persistent geopolitical risks keep market sentiment cautious; ETF flows have yet to show a strong resurgence, indicating that institutional demand remains hesitant; expectations of prolonged high interest rates continue to exert pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets.

The combination of these factors places Bitcoin between two opposing forces: on one side, long-term growth expectations; on the other, a macro environment that remains unfavorable in the short term.

At present, Bitcoin is no longer behaving as an independent asset, but increasingly reflects its role as a macro asset, with its direction heavily dependent on interest rates, liquidity, and monetary policy expectations.

In the current context, Bitcoin is likely to continue moving in a consolidation or range-bound pattern, rather than forming a strong uptrend immediately. Upward moves may still occur, particularly when supported by economic data or ETF flows, but they are likely to be short-term in nature and prone to selling pressure as price approaches key resistance zones. To confirm a sustainable bullish trend, the market will require clearer conditions, including a genuine easing of inflation, signals of policy loosening from the Fed, or a strong return of institutional capital flows.