Bitcoin Rebounds to $69,000, but Markets Remain Driven by Macro and Geopolitical Risks

At present, there are no clear signs of easing in geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding developments involving the United States and Iran. Instead, the current market state is better characterized as a temporary reduction in panic, after markets had reacted strongly to earlier escalation headlines. This has allowed risk assets, including Bitcoin, to stage a short-term rebound, but it remains insufficient to confirm a sustainable trend reversal.

This week, market attention will turn to key U.S. data releases, including GDP, PCE, and CPI. In the context of elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflationary pressures, these data points will play a critical role in shaping expectations for monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Should inflation remain elevated, the “higher for longer” narrative is likely to be reinforced, supporting the U.S. dollar while continuing to weigh on risk assets.

Notably, institutional flows have yet to show a clear return. ETF-related flows have recently become more unstable, alternating between inflows and outflows, which reflects growing investor caution amid a lack of strong catalysts. This suggests that Bitcoin’s current recovery is not supported by long-term capital, but is instead largely driven by short-term technical positioning.

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade within a broad consolidation range following its sharp correction in Q1. The recent move back toward the $69,000 level appears to be more of a retest of prior supply zones rather than confirmation of a new uptrend.

In the base case scenario, if upcoming data, particularly PCE and CPI, continue to indicate persistent inflationary pressure, reinforcing expectations of prolonged policy tightness, Bitcoin may face renewed downside risk as capital continues to favor the U.S. dollar and yield-bearing assets. Conversely, only a clear shift in macro data or a consistent return of institutional inflows would provide a stronger foundation for a sustained upward trend.