Technical outlook for gold prices (XAUUSD) at a historic crossroads: Will global crises and inflation data drive it above $4,800?

The 4-hour chart of gold (XAU/USD) shows that gold is currently moving in a positive consolidation phase near the 4760–4780 area, which is a key pivot zone that clearly aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level at 4779.73. This area represents an important technical resistance, especially as it coincides with the descending moving average visible on the chart, making it a decisive point for the next trend direction. Stability above 4760 reflects continued buying momentum, but a clear breakout and close above 4780–4785 remains the essential condition to confirm further upside extension.

From a technical perspective, the price appears to have formed a rounded bottom pattern after the sharp decline that reached the 4200 area, followed by a structured recovery wave up to current levels. This pattern is typically considered a medium-term bullish reversal signal, strengthening the probability of higher targets if price successfully breaks the current resistance near 4800. Additionally, the stochastic momentum indicator is moving in positive territory near level 40, suggesting there is still room for further upside before reaching overbought conditions.

In my view, the most likely scenario in the coming hours is a test of the 4780–4800 resistance zone. If a breakout and sustained move above it occurs, we could see a rapid extension toward 5000 and then 5300, as suggested by the current upward price structure. The alternative scenario would be a failed breakout, leading to a pullback toward 4700 and then 4600 as key support levels before resuming the uptrend. The overall trend on the 4-hour timeframe remains bullish as long as trading stays above 4600.

Support levels: 4700 — 4600 — 4580

Resistance levels: 4780 — 5000 — 5300