Nasdaq 100 Extends to a Five-Session Rebound, But Key Headwinds Remain

In the short term, the index has recorded five consecutive sessions of gains from the recent low near 23,000, indicating that dip-buying demand is returning after a sharp correction. However, it is important to note that this sequence of gains follows a significant sell-off, suggesting that the current move carries more characteristics of a technical rebound rather than confirming a sustainable uptrend.

The recovery has been supported by a shift in geopolitical expectations. After Pakistan initially proposed extending the deadline and pushing for a ceasefire, the U.S. and Iran later agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. These developments have helped the market reprice risk, providing support to growth assets, including technology stocks.

At the component level, the index’s gains were primarily driven by strong performances in select technology names, particularly within semiconductors and cybersecurity. Broadcom and CrowdStrike both rose over 6%, while Palo Alto Networks and Intel gained around 4–5%. In contrast, Big Tech stocks played a more supportive role with modest gains, and some large-cap names even declined, highlighting ongoing market divergence. This suggests that capital flows remain highly concentrated, with only a handful of leading stocks driving the index higher, while overall market breadth has yet to meaningfully improve.

On the macro front, core conditions remain largely unchanged. U.S. Treasury yields continue to hover at elevated levels (around 4.2%–4.3% for the 10-year), while oil prices, despite a sharp pullback from around $117 to below $100 per barrel (WTI ~ $96), remain relatively high. This indicates that inflationary pressures have not fully dissipated, thereby limiting expectations for near-term monetary easing and continuing to weigh on the valuation of growth stocks, which dominate the Nasdaq 100.

In addition, markets this week are closely watching key inflation data, including CPI and PCE, which could play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path going forward.

Overall, while the Nasdaq 100 is showing signs of stabilization following the recent sell-off, the current rebound is likely technical in nature. With elevated interest rates and persistent inflation risks still in place, the index may continue to face short-term consolidation rather than quickly establishing a clear upward trend.