SGD to Yen Forecast 2026-2030: Predictions and Analysis

SGD/JPY Forecast at a Glance

The Singapore dollar to Japanese yen outlook for 2026–2030 continues to reflect a marked policy divergence between two major central banks.

Over 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has shifted from decades of near-zero stimulus toward renewed tightening, lifting its policy rate to 0.75 %—a 30-year high—and debating further increases amid inflation that remains above target.

This marks a departure from its historically ultra-dovish stance, yet markets still price significant caution in future BOJ moves.

Against this backdrop, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains a vigilant stance on inflation through its exchange rate policy framework, underpinning the Singapore dollar’s relative strength amid regional carry flows.

Current dynamics leave the yen vulnerable; long-term Japanese government bond yields surged in 2025, pushing rates sharply higher as BOJ scales back bond purchases—a development that contributed to yen weakness through the year.

Structural factors still point to a bullish bias for SGD/JPY as yield differentials and risk appetite favor higher-yielding currencies, but renewed BOJ tightening and possible government intervention add complexity to the outlook.

In this context, SGD/JPY is projected to follow a moderating downward drift in line with the new forecast averages:

SGD/JPY Forecast Scenarios for 2026

SGD/JPY Live Rate & Current Market Drivers

As of late December 2025, SGD/JPY stands at 121.57, reflecting lingering yen softness even as BOJ tightening progresses. Recent Japanese bond market developments have seen the steepest annual surge in yields in decades, driven by reduced BOJ buying and fiscal stimulus, yet the yen has shown limited upside against major currencies despite policy shifts.

Key forces shaping the pair:

• Yield Differentials: Japan’s long-term yields have climbed sharply through 2025 but remain a focal point of BOJ deliberations on future hikes. Persistent yield advantage in Singapore supports demand for SGD-denominated assets.
• Inflation and Central Bank Stances: BOJ inflation remains above its 2 % target, prompting debate on further increase. MAS continues to manage the Singapore dollar via its exchange rate policy in response to domestic inflation dynamics.
• Global Risk Sentiment: Across markets, risk drivers include U.S. dollar weakness and divergent central bank paths, collectively supporting higher yielding currencies against the yen.

Technical indicators for SGD/JPY reflect a pair that has traded above key moving averages through 2025, highlighting sustained interest from carry strategies. Momentum suggests potential consolidation may precede further directional moves.

Overall, SGD/JPY maintains constructive underlying biases in the medium term, but traders should monitor BOJ communication closely for signals on the pace and extent of policy normalization.

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Short-Term SGD/JPY Forecast (Next 3-6 Months)

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Technically, on the weekly timeframe, the pair is facing resistance from the premium zone between 121.324 - 122.074. This occurs within a dominant and sharp bullish market structure.

Should the price manage to break above the current resistance zone, focus could shift to higher peaks, potentially reaching the Fibonacci extension levels at 126.15 - 128.28.

Conversely, this upward extension is likely to encounter a bearish correction. This pullback could target the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the bullish wave at 118.864, or even the supportive bullish order block spanning 113.911 - 115.736.

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Disclaimer: The chart reflects the analyst's opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Seek independent advice before making decisions

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Schedule

The MAS conducts its monetary policy reviews twice a year, in April and October, focusing on the slope, width, and center of the S$NEER policy band rather than interest rates.

Any steepening of the S$NEER slope would signal tighter policy and be positive for the Singapore dollar (SGD). The next meeting will be closely watched for signals of continued inflation management, as a more hawkish tone could support SGD strength against the yen.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Calendar

The BOJ remains a key driver for the yen side of the pair. Upcoming Tankan surveys, CPI data, and policy meetings will be scrutinized for hints of policy normalization.

Any move toward higher rates or tapering of asset purchases would likely boost the yen (JPY-positive), putting downward pressure on SGD/JPY.

Conversely, if the BOJ maintains its ultra-dovish stance and reaffirms yield curve control, the pair could resume its upward bias toward the 118.00 resistance zone.

Long-Term SGD/JPY Forecast (2026-2030)

Bank and Institutional Predictions

SGD to JPY forecast for 2026

The SGD to JPY forecast for 2026 points to a gradual normalization lower from current elevated levels, with institutional projections clustering mostly between 113.00 and 118.20 across the year.

Early-2026 forecasts from Credit Agricole, DBS, ING, and Westpac center around 116–117, while MUFG and DBS introduce downside skew toward 112–114 by year-end. The dispersion reflects expectations of a softer USD/JPY profile alongside relative stability in USD/SGD, mechanically pulling SGD/JPY lower as yen pressures ease modestly.

Overall, 2026 is characterized by consolidation rather than a sharp trend reversal in the SGD to JPY exchange rate.

SGD to JPY forecast for 2027

The SGD to JPY forecast for 2027 reinforces a mild downward bias, with most projections converging into a tighter 109.50–116.90 range.

Credit Agricole maintains a relatively constructive view near 114–117, while DBS and Westpac consistently price lower levels between 111 and 113, especially into the second half of the year.

This narrowing range suggests markets increasingly price reduced volatility, driven by incremental yen stabilization and a plateauing of SGD carry advantages.

From an analytical perspective, 2027 appears as a transition year where downside risks dominate, but without aggressive depreciation scenarios.

SGD to JPY forecast for 2028

The SGD to JPY forecast for 2028 shows a notable inflection. Westpac’s early-year projections indicate a drop toward 107.94 in March and 106.35 by June, marking the cycle lows across the entire forecast horizon.

However, DBS’s December 2028 projection rebounds sharply to 113.49, highlighting expectations of a late-cycle recovery. This divergence signals a market split between near-term yen strength and medium-term re-pricing higher as global FX balances adjust.

From an SEO and analytical standpoint, 2028 stands out as the most volatile year in the SGD to JPY forecast path.

SGD to JPY forecast for 2029

The SGD to JPY forecast for 2029 stabilizes decisively, with DBS projecting 113.60 by December. This suggests that post-2028 volatility gives way to equilibrium pricing, as relative monetary paths are assumed to be largely priced in.

The absence of wide forecast dispersion implies reduced uncertainty, with SGD/JPY expected to trade near long-term fair value rather than trend strongly in either direction. Structurally, 2029 reflects a normalization phase rather than a directional bet.

SGD to JPY forecast for 2030

The long-term SGD to JPY forecast for 2030 points to mild depreciation toward 112.80, according to DBS.

This level sits slightly below 2029 but well above 2028 trough, reinforcing the view that extreme yen weakness is not a base-case assumption over the long run.

From a strategic lens, 2030 projections frame SGD/JPY as range-bound with a modest downside tilt, shaped more by equilibrium macro forces than policy shocks.

For long-horizon positioning, the SGD to JPY forecast suggests stability rather than trend-driven opportunity.

Sources: Institutional forecasts as of November 2025; subject to change as monetary and fiscal conditions evolve.

The Structural Story: Demographics vs. Stability

Over the long term, the SGD/JPY trajectory will be shaped by deep structural contrasts between Japan and Singapore.

Japan faces an aging population, a shrinking labor force, and massive public debt exceeding 250% of GDP, factors that constrain growth potential and keep the Bank of Japan committed to ultra-loose monetary policy for longer.

Singapore, by contrast, maintains a strong fiscal position, a managed exchange-rate framework, and growth centered on innovation and foreign investment. These fundamentals provide long-term support for the Singapore dollar (SGD) relative to currencies with weaker structural profiles.

As a result, while cyclical volatility will persist, the long-term bias favors gradual SGD appreciation against the JPY, assuming Singapore preserves macro stability and Japan’s policy normalization remains slow.

In-Depth Analysis: The 4 Key Drivers of the SGD/JPY Rate

Central Bank Policy Divergence: MAS vs. BOJ

This remains the primary driver of the SGD/JPY exchange rate.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages policy through the S$NEER exchange rate band, rather than interest rates, allowing the currency to appreciate gradually when inflationary pressures rise. This mechanism embeds a structural SGD-strengthening bias, as MAS often leans toward modest tightening to maintain price stability.

By contrast, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to anchor policy with Yield Curve Control (YCC) and near-zero interest rates, prioritizing growth and reflation. This ultra-loose stance exerts persistent downward pressure on the yen.

Result: As long as MAS maintains a firm stance against inflation while the BOJ delays normalization, the policy divergence supports a gradual uptrend in SGD/JPY.

The SGD/JPY Carry Trade

The carry trade is the key financial flow driver behind this pair. Investors borrow yen at near-zero cost and invest in higher-yielding Singaporean assets, including government bonds, corporate debt, and REITs, to capture the yield differential.

When global risk sentiment is stable (risk-on), these flows accelerate, pushing SGD/JPY higher. Conversely, during risk-off episodes, investors unwind these positions, repatriating funds into JPY and triggering sharp but temporary corrections.

Result:  This dynamic produces a characteristic pattern of steady climbs followed by sudden drops, reflecting the cyclical nature of global risk appetite and funding flows.

Global Risk Sentiment

Risk sentiment acts as an important secondary driver, influencing the pace and direction of capital flows.
 In risk-on environments, yield-seeking behavior favors the SGD over the JPY, lifting the pair. In risk-off conditions, the yen benefits from its safe-haven status, often strengthening abruptly.

However, in extreme crises, both currencies can attract inflows—the JPY for safety, the SGD for stability and strong reserves—creating a more ambiguous directional outcome.

Result: The intensity and nature of global risk events determine whether SGD/JPY’s reaction is directional or neutral, underscoring the pair’s hybrid profile: part risk-sensitive, part defensive.

Relative Economic Performance & Terms of Trade

Singapore’s economy remains export-oriented and trade-dependent, with strong exposure to electronics, logistics, and financial services. Its terms of trade benefit from efficient management of external demand and stable current account surpluses.

Japan, on the other hand, continues to face structural headwinds: an aging population, sluggish productivity growth, and limited inflation momentum. These factors constrain the BOJ’s ability to tighten policy sustainably.

Result: Over time, the structural resilience and fiscal prudence of Singapore provide long-term support for the SGD, while Japan’s demographic and policy challenges keep the yen on a weaker trajectory.

Scenario Analysis: Carry Trade Rally, BOJ Shock, or Policy Stalemate?

Carry Trade Rally (SGD/JPY towards 120+)

In this scenario, the BOJ remains firmly dovish, keeping rates near zero and defending its YCC framework, while the MAS maintains a tightening bias to anchor inflation. With global markets in a risk-on environment, investors continue to borrow yen to fund higher-yielding SGD assets such as bonds and REITs.

This setup fuels persistent capital inflows into Singapore and a steady upward trend in SGD/JPY, highlighting the carry trade dynamics driving the pair’s performance.

Result: A sustained carry-trade rally, with the pair potentially extending beyond the 120.00 mark if volatility stays low and global liquidity remains ample.

BOJ Policy Shock (SGD/JPY plummets below 110)

Here, the BOJ surprises markets by either abandoning Yield Curve Control (YCC) or raising policy rates more aggressively than expected. This would trigger a sharp yen appreciation as carry trades unwind and speculative short positions on the JPY are squeezed.

A coordinated FX intervention by Japanese authorities could amplify the move, while risk aversion rises globally.

Result: A swift and deep correction in SGD/JPY, potentially dropping below 110.00 as the yen reasserts its safe-haven dominance.

Policy Stalemate (Range-Bound: 110-118)

The most balanced outcome is one of policy equilibrium. The MAS holds its policy settings steady after prior tightening, while the BOJ makes only incremental adjustments to YCC without signaling full normalization.

Meanwhile, global markets oscillate between optimism and caution, keeping risk appetite contained.
 Result: The pair likely trades within a broad 110–118 range, reflecting a temporary pause in policy divergence and carry-trade momentum.

Strategic Guide: Trading and Hedging SGD/JPY Exposure

For Carry Trade Investors

The SGD/JPY cross remains one of Asia’s more reliable carry trade vehicles, supported by Singapore’s higher short-term yields versus Japan’s ultra-low rates. However, while the yield differential can provide steady returns, FX risk often outweighs the interest advantage during volatile periods.

Investors should therefore hedge downside exposure through options strategies (such as purchasing JPY call/SGD put options) or by maintaining protective stop-loss orders near key technical levels. Portfolio leverage should remain modest, as BOJ policy surprises or sudden spikes in risk aversion can quickly erase months of carry gains.

For Corporations with SGD/JPY Exposure

Corporates with receivables or payables in either currency should adopt a disciplined hedging program using forward contracts or non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Locking in rates during periods of JPY weakness, typically near the upper resistance levels of the pair, can secure favorable conversion terms.

Firms should also diversify hedge tenors to smooth out timing risks and monitor MAS and BOJ policy calendars closely, as monetary announcements often trigger short-term volatility that can be used to optimize hedging execution.

For Forex Traders

SGD/JPY is known for its well-defined trends supported by fundamental carry flows, making it attractive for trend-following strategies in stable, risk-on environments. Traders can seek to buy dips above support (around 107.00–108.00) and target rallies toward 119.00-120.00, aligning positions with the carry bias.

However, reversals can be abrupt, particularly following BOJ interventions or sudden risk-off episodes, so maintaining tight stop-loss levels and reducing position size around major policy events is essential.

Key Risks to the Forecast

Despite the base-case exchange rate forecast for 2026 favoring a gradual appreciation bias in SGD/JPY, several high-impact risks could materially alter the pair’s trajectory in 2026 and beyond:

“Bond Vigilante” Pressure on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs)

A sudden sell-off in Japan’s bond market, driven by rising inflation expectations or loss of investor confidence, could force the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to tighten policy aggressively or abandon its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework.

Such a move would likely trigger a sharp appreciation of the yen, overwhelming carry positions and pushing SGD/JPY sharply lower in a matter of days.

Global Growth Downturn and Carry Trade Unwinds

A significant slowdown in global growth or trade activity would weigh heavily on Singapore’s export-driven economy and reduce demand for risk assets.

As investors unwind carry trades and repatriate funds into JPY during risk-off conditions, SGD/JPY could face a disorderly correction, especially if liquidity tightens across emerging Asia.

MAS Policy Shift Toward Neutral or Easing Bias

If the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) pivots from its current mildly restrictive stance to a neutral or easing policy, the SGD could weaken structurally.

This risk would be amplified if inflation pressures subside faster than expected or if domestic growth slows, prompting MAS to reduce the slope of the S$NEER band.

Under such a scenario, SGD/JPY’s upside momentum would stall or reverse.

Sustained or Aggressive FX Intervention by Japanese Authorities

Japanese policymakers have demonstrated a willingness to intervene directly in the FX market to defend the yen from excessive depreciation.

If intervention becomes prolonged or coordinated, it could cap SGD/JPY rallies and introduce volatility unrelated to fundamentals, forcing market participants to unwind leveraged long positions.

Geopolitical or Regional Market Shocks

Unexpected geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, such as trade disruptions, security incidents, or U.S.–China strategic escalation, could prompt a flight to safety into JPY, reversing risk-on flows that typically support the pair.

Even short-lived shocks could lead to sharp intraday corrections given the pair’s sensitivity to global sentiment shifts.

Conclusion & Final Takeaways

The Singapore Dollar to Japanese Yen outlook maintains a structural upward bias, underpinned by the persistent monetary policy divergence in Asia between the MAS and the BOJ.

Singapore’s firm stance on managing inflation contrasts sharply with Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

The carry trade remains the dominant driver of the pair’s strength, but investors should remain cautious of abrupt reversals triggered by BOJ policy surprises or global risk-off sentiment. Close monitoring of BOJ rhetoric, especially any hints of policy normalization, and MAS’s semi-annual policy reviews (April and October) will be key for anticipating directional shifts.

For most participants, a balanced and hedged positioning is recommended: benefit from the structural carry while protecting against tail risks tied to intervention or volatility spikes.