SGD to Yen Forecast 2025-2030: Predictions and Analysis

SGD/JPY Forecast at a Glance

The Singapore Dollar to Japanese Yen outlook for 2025-2030 reflects a persistent policy divide between two central banks moving in opposite directions: Singapore’s Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which continues to guide a tightening bias through its exchange rate framework, and Japan’s Bank of Japan (BOJ), which remains firmly dovish, anchored by ultra-low rates and yield curve control.

This policy divergence creates a structural bullish bias for the Singapore dollar against the yen, as yield-seeking investors continue to favor SGD assets amid stable regional growth. However, the outlook is tempered by BOJ intervention risks and the potential for sudden volatility if global sentiment shifts toward risk aversion.

In the base-case scenario, SGD/JPY is expected to trade between 112.00 and 119.00 over the next six months, supported by a cautious MAS tightening stance and limited policy movement from the BOJ. A bullish SGD scenario could materialize by the end of 2025, pushing the pair toward 115.00–122.00, if global markets remain in a “risk-on” environment and carry trade flows extend.

Conversely, a bullish JPY scenario could unfold by 2026 should the BOJ unexpectedly signal policy normalization or conduct coordinated FX intervention to curb excessive yen weakness, bringing the pair down toward 105.00–112.00.

Overall, this SGD/JPY analysis suggests the pair remains structurally tilted to the upside, but investors should remain alert to potential policy shocks and intervention risks, which could quickly disrupt the steady appreciation trend.

SGD/JPY Forecast Scenarios (2025-2026)

SGD/JPY Live Rate & Current Market Drivers

As of November 2025, the SGD/JPY pair trades near 119.00, reflecting persistent carry trade inflows into Singaporean assets amid a stable risk-on backdrop. The pair continues to trend higher, supported by the MAS vs BOJ policy divergence, which remains the key driver behind the exchange rate forecast for 2025

From a technical perspective, this SGD/JPY technical outlook shows the price remains comfortably above 200-period moving averages on the 1D (one-day) chart, reinforcing the medium-term bullish bias.

Momentum indicators are in mildly overbought territory, suggesting consolidation may precede any further upside attempts toward the 120.00 level.

On the macro side, several forces are shaping current price action:

• Yield Differentials: Singapore’s government bond yields remain notably higher than Japan’s, sustaining steady demand for the Singapore dollar through carry trades.

• Inflation and MAS Policy: Persistent core inflation in Singapore keeps the MAS vigilant and biased toward a slightly tighter stance, indirectly supporting the SGD.

• BOJ Stance: The Bank of Japan continues its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and dovish communication, limiting yen upside and maintaining a soft tone.

• Global Risk Sentiment: A moderately positive global risk environment favors higher-yielding currencies, amplifying inflows into the SGD and supporting the pair.

Overall, SGD/JPY maintains a constructive bias, though traders should remain cautious of potential BOJ intervention headlines or abrupt reversals in global sentiment, which could trigger short-term volatility.

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Short-Term SGD/JPY Forecast (Next 3-6 Months)

Technical Analysis and Key Levels

The SGD/JPY pair has been consolidating near the 118.00 region after a strong rally earlier this year. Key support levels are seen at 107.00 and 108.00, while resistance lies around 119 and 120.00. The broader trend remains constructive as long as prices stay above 112.00, but momentum indicators suggest limited upside in the near term. The pair tends to follow carry-trade flows, benefiting when global risk sentiment is stable, yet remains vulnerable to sharp reversals if volatility spikes.

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Disclaimer: The chart reflects the analyst's opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Seek independent advice before making decisions

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) Schedule

The MAS conducts its monetary policy reviews twice a year, in April and October, focusing on the slope, width, and center of the S$NEER policy band rather than interest rates.

Any steepening of the S$NEER slope would signal tighter policy and be positive for the Singapore dollar (SGD). The next meeting will be closely watched for signals of continued inflation management, as a more hawkish tone could support SGD strength against the yen.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy Calendar

The BOJ remains a key driver for the yen side of the pair. Upcoming Tankan surveys, CPI data, and policy meetings will be scrutinized for hints of policy normalization.

Any move toward higher rates or tapering of asset purchases would likely boost the yen (JPY-positive), putting downward pressure on SGD/JPY.

Conversely, if the BOJ maintains its ultra-dovish stance and reaffirms yield curve control, the pair could resume its upward bias toward the 118.00 resistance zone.

Long-Term SGD/JPY Forecast (2025, 2026-2030)

Bank and Institutional Predictions

Below are selected forecasts from major financial institutions that cover the SGD/JPY cross. The general consensus points to relative stability with a mild upside bias for the Singapore dollar over the medium to long term.

Sources: Institutional forecasts as of November 2025; subject to change as monetary and fiscal conditions evolve.

The Structural Story: Demographics vs. Stability

Over the long term, the SGD/JPY trajectory will be shaped by deep structural contrasts between Japan and Singapore.

Japan faces an aging population, a shrinking labor force, and massive public debt exceeding 250% of GDP, factors that constrain growth potential and keep the Bank of Japan committed to ultra-loose monetary policy for longer.

Singapore, by contrast, maintains a strong fiscal position, a managed exchange-rate framework, and growth centered on innovation and foreign investment. These fundamentals provide long-term support for the Singapore dollar (SGD) relative to currencies with weaker structural profiles.

As a result, while cyclical volatility will persist, the long-term bias favors gradual SGD appreciation against the JPY, assuming Singapore preserves macro stability and Japan’s policy normalization remains slow.

In-Depth Analysis: The 4 Key Drivers of the SGD/JPY Rate

Central Bank Policy Divergence: MAS vs. BOJ

This remains the primary driver of the SGD/JPY exchange rate.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) manages policy through the S$NEER exchange rate band, rather than interest rates, allowing the currency to appreciate gradually when inflationary pressures rise. This mechanism embeds a structural SGD-strengthening bias, as MAS often leans toward modest tightening to maintain price stability.

By contrast, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to anchor policy with Yield Curve Control (YCC) and near-zero interest rates, prioritizing growth and reflation. This ultra-loose stance exerts persistent downward pressure on the yen.

Result: As long as MAS maintains a firm stance against inflation while the BOJ delays normalization, the policy divergence supports a gradual uptrend in SGD/JPY.

The SGD/JPY Carry Trade

The carry trade is the key financial flow driver behind this pair. Investors borrow yen at near-zero cost and invest in higher-yielding Singaporean assets, including government bonds, corporate debt, and REITs, to capture the yield differential.

When global risk sentiment is stable (risk-on), these flows accelerate, pushing SGD/JPY higher. Conversely, during risk-off episodes, investors unwind these positions, repatriating funds into JPY and triggering sharp but temporary corrections.

Result:  This dynamic produces a characteristic pattern of steady climbs followed by sudden drops, reflecting the cyclical nature of global risk appetite and funding flows.

Global Risk Sentiment

Risk sentiment acts as an important secondary driver, influencing the pace and direction of capital flows.
 In risk-on environments, yield-seeking behavior favors the SGD over the JPY, lifting the pair. In risk-off conditions, the yen benefits from its safe-haven status, often strengthening abruptly.

However, in extreme crises, both currencies can attract inflows—the JPY for safety, the SGD for stability and strong reserves—creating a more ambiguous directional outcome.

Result: The intensity and nature of global risk events determine whether SGD/JPY’s reaction is directional or neutral, underscoring the pair’s hybrid profile: part risk-sensitive, part defensive.

Relative Economic Performance & Terms of Trade

Singapore’s economy remains export-oriented and trade-dependent, with strong exposure to electronics, logistics, and financial services. Its terms of trade benefit from efficient management of external demand and stable current account surpluses.

Japan, on the other hand, continues to face structural headwinds: an aging population, sluggish productivity growth, and limited inflation momentum. These factors constrain the BOJ’s ability to tighten policy sustainably.

Result: Over time, the structural resilience and fiscal prudence of Singapore provide long-term support for the SGD, while Japan’s demographic and policy challenges keep the yen on a weaker trajectory.

Scenario Analysis: Carry Trade Rally, BOJ Shock, or Policy Stalemate?

Carry Trade Rally (SGD/JPY towards 120+)

In this scenario, the BOJ remains firmly dovish, keeping rates near zero and defending its YCC framework, while the MAS maintains a tightening bias to anchor inflation. With global markets in a risk-on environment, investors continue to borrow yen to fund higher-yielding SGD assets such as bonds and REITs.

This setup fuels persistent capital inflows into Singapore and a steady upward trend in SGD/JPY, highlighting the carry trade dynamics driving the pair’s performance.

Result: A sustained carry-trade rally, with the pair potentially extending beyond the 120.00 mark if volatility stays low and global liquidity remains ample.

BOJ Policy Shock (SGD/JPY plummets below 110)

Here, the BOJ surprises markets by either abandoning Yield Curve Control (YCC) or raising policy rates more aggressively than expected. This would trigger a sharp yen appreciation as carry trades unwind and speculative short positions on the JPY are squeezed.

A coordinated FX intervention by Japanese authorities could amplify the move, while risk aversion rises globally.

Result: A swift and deep correction in SGD/JPY, potentially dropping below 110.00 as the yen reasserts its safe-haven dominance.

Policy Stalemate (Range-Bound: 110-118)

The most balanced outcome is one of policy equilibrium. The MAS holds its policy settings steady after prior tightening, while the BOJ makes only incremental adjustments to YCC without signaling full normalization.

Meanwhile, global markets oscillate between optimism and caution, keeping risk appetite contained.
 Result: The pair likely trades within a broad 110–118 range, reflecting a temporary pause in policy divergence and carry-trade momentum.

Strategic Guide: Trading and Hedging SGD/JPY Exposure

For Carry Trade Investors

The SGD/JPY cross remains one of Asia’s more reliable carry trade vehicles, supported by Singapore’s higher short-term yields versus Japan’s ultra-low rates. However, while the yield differential can provide steady returns, FX risk often outweighs the interest advantage during volatile periods.

Investors should therefore hedge downside exposure through options strategies (such as purchasing JPY call/SGD put options) or by maintaining protective stop-loss orders near key technical levels. Portfolio leverage should remain modest, as BOJ policy surprises or sudden spikes in risk aversion can quickly erase months of carry gains.

For Corporations with SGD/JPY Exposure

Corporates with receivables or payables in either currency should adopt a disciplined hedging program using forward contracts or non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). Locking in rates during periods of JPY weakness, typically near the upper resistance levels of the pair, can secure favorable conversion terms.

Firms should also diversify hedge tenors to smooth out timing risks and monitor MAS and BOJ policy calendars closely, as monetary announcements often trigger short-term volatility that can be used to optimize hedging execution.

For Forex Traders

SGD/JPY is known for its well-defined trends supported by fundamental carry flows, making it attractive for trend-following strategies in stable, risk-on environments. Traders can seek to buy dips above support (around 107.00–108.00) and target rallies toward 119.00-120.00, aligning positions with the carry bias.

However, reversals can be abrupt, particularly following BOJ interventions or sudden risk-off episodes, so maintaining tight stop-loss levels and reducing position size around major policy events is essential.

Key Risks to the Forecast

Despite the base-case exchange rate forecast for 2025 favoring a gradual appreciation bias in SGD/JPY, several high-impact risks could materially alter the pair’s trajectory in 2025 and beyond:

“Bond Vigilante” Pressure on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs)

A sudden sell-off in Japan’s bond market, driven by rising inflation expectations or loss of investor confidence, could force the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to tighten policy aggressively or abandon its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework.

Such a move would likely trigger a sharp appreciation of the yen, overwhelming carry positions and pushing SGD/JPY sharply lower in a matter of days.

Global Growth Downturn and Carry Trade Unwinds

A significant slowdown in global growth or trade activity would weigh heavily on Singapore’s export-driven economy and reduce demand for risk assets.

As investors unwind carry trades and repatriate funds into JPY during risk-off conditions, SGD/JPY could face a disorderly correction, especially if liquidity tightens across emerging Asia.

MAS Policy Shift Toward Neutral or Easing Bias

If the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) pivots from its current mildly restrictive stance to a neutral or easing policy, the SGD could weaken structurally.

This risk would be amplified if inflation pressures subside faster than expected or if domestic growth slows, prompting MAS to reduce the slope of the S$NEER band.

Under such a scenario, SGD/JPY’s upside momentum would stall or reverse.

Sustained or Aggressive FX Intervention by Japanese Authorities

Japanese policymakers have demonstrated a willingness to intervene directly in the FX market to defend the yen from excessive depreciation.

If intervention becomes prolonged or coordinated, it could cap SGD/JPY rallies and introduce volatility unrelated to fundamentals, forcing market participants to unwind leveraged long positions.

Geopolitical or Regional Market Shocks

Unexpected geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, such as trade disruptions, security incidents, or U.S.–China strategic escalation, could prompt a flight to safety into JPY, reversing risk-on flows that typically support the pair.

Even short-lived shocks could lead to sharp intraday corrections given the pair’s sensitivity to global sentiment shifts.

Conclusion & Final Takeaways

The Singapore Dollar to Japanese Yen outlook maintains a structural upward bias, underpinned by the persistent monetary policy divergence in Asia between the MAS and the BOJ.

Singapore’s firm stance on managing inflation contrasts sharply with Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy.

The carry trade remains the dominant driver of the pair’s strength, but investors should remain cautious of abrupt reversals triggered by BOJ policy surprises or global risk-off sentiment. Close monitoring of BOJ rhetoric, especially any hints of policy normalization, and MAS’s semi-annual policy reviews (April and October) will be key for anticipating directional shifts.

For most participants, a balanced and hedged positioning is recommended: benefit from the structural carry while protecting against tail risks tied to intervention or volatility spikes.