Technical outlook for silver prices: Where is XAGUSD heading between inflation and monetary policy?

The 4-hour chart of silver (XAG/USD) shows that the price is moving within a corrective bearish range after a clear failure to stabilize above the recent peak near the 83–84 area. This rejection coincided with the formation of a corrective structure resembling an ABC pattern, where the C-leg completed near the 73–74 zone, which represents a key support area that also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. In my view, this behavior reflects weakening short-term bullish momentum, with continued selling pressure as long as the price remains below the 78 level.

From a technical perspective, the price is currently trading below the 200-period major moving average, which reinforces the bearish outlook, especially with the Stochastic momentum indicator declining from overbought territory without confirming a strong reversal so far. We also observe that any upward attempts are met with selling pressure from corrective levels, indicating that the dominant momentum remains downward and corrective. In my opinion, a clear break below 73.50 would activate a deeper bearish wave that could extend toward the 50% and then the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels.

However, the alternative scenario cannot be ignored. Stability above the 73–74 zone may give the market an opportunity to retest resistance at 77.00 and then 80.00, especially if positive momentum reversal signals emerge. But until that happens, I believe any upside will remain limited unless we see a clear breakout and sustained trading above 78.00, which represents a key technical turning point in the short-term trend.

Supports: 73.50 – 71.80 – 69.50

Resistances: 77.00 – 80.00 – 83.50