Technical outlook for USD/JPY near 160: Is oil-driven inflation fueling a new bullish wave, or opening the door to Japanese intervention?

The 4-hour chart of USD/JPY shows that price continues to move within a slightly upward-sloping range, having formed progressively higher highs and higher lows since mid-month. This reflects that the short-term trend remains positive, despite increasing selling pressure near current levels. From a technical perspective, the price approaching the key resistance zone around 159.80–160.00 represents an important test of selling liquidity—especially after the recent rally, which occurred without deep corrections, making the market more sensitive to any reversal signals or profit-taking.

It is also noticeable that the rising moving average is supporting price from below and acting as a dynamic trendline. The pair has maintained trading above this average during most recent sessions, reinforcing the bullish scenario as long as price remains above approximately 158.70. On the other hand, the momentum indicator (RSI) is hovering near overbought levels above 70, with a slight downward tilt. This suggests the possibility of a limited technical correction before the uptrend resumes. Therefore, any pullback toward nearby support zones may present a repositioning buying opportunity rather than the start of a sharp bearish reversal.

In an alternative scenario, holding above 159.15 would maintain the positive outlook and open the door for an attempt to break the psychological barrier at 160.00. If this breakout is confirmed with a clear 4-hour close, momentum could extend toward the 160.50 area as the next technical target. However, if price fails to break the current resistance and strong reversal candles appear, we may see a gradual correction toward 159.00 and then 158.70. This would be considered a healthy pullback within the uptrend rather than a structural shift in the overall direction—unless the 158.25 level is clearly broken on a closing basis.

Support levels: 159.167 — 158.732 — 158.261

Resistance levels: 159.880 — 160.000 — 160.500