Technical outlook for USD/JPY and the risks of Japanese intervention: Will Tokyo change the rules of the game?

USD/JPY continues to move within a clear bullish trend on the 4-hour timeframe, supported by price stability above the key moving averages and the ongoing formation of higher highs and higher lows in a gradual structure. The chart shows that the pair recently rebounded from a key support zone near 156.20, reflecting continued short-term buyer dominance, despite a noticeable decline in bullish momentum compared to previous impulsive waves. Maintaining trade above the ascending trendline further reinforces the potential for new highs as long as price action remains above current support areas.

On the other hand, the price is currently approaching a sensitive zone acting as short-term resistance, where trading conditions suggest the possibility of temporary volatility or a limited corrective pullback before any continuation of the upward move. A clear breakout and sustained move above the latest peak would likely open the door for further upside extension toward 158.50 and then 159.00, especially if positive momentum persists on technical indicators such as RSI and MACD, despite signs of partial overbought conditions.

Downside risks remain present if the price fails to hold above 156.20, as a break below this level could trigger a deeper corrective wave toward 155.50 and then 155.00, where renewed buying interest is expected to emerge. Overall, the technical bias remains positive as long as the pair holds above the key support level, while near-term price action continues to depend on momentum strength and buyers’ ability to overcome nearby resistance zones.

Support levels: 156.20 — 155.50 — 155.00

Resistance levels: 157.30 — 158.50 — 159.00