Technical Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD): Where Is It Headed? Is This the Calm Before the Storm?

The 4-hour chart of gold (XAUUSD) shows a clear sideways movement following a corrective upward wave that came after a sharp bottom. The price has managed to form a technical structure resembling a completed harmonic reversal pattern, followed by relative stability above the 4600 level. From my perspective, this behavior reflects a phase of balance between buying forces attempting to restore the upward trend and selling forces defending key resistance zones near 4900. Additionally, the price’s positioning around the 0.618 Fibonacci level reinforces the importance of this area as a key decision point for the market.

From a technical standpoint, we can observe that momentum has started to slow as the price approaches oversold levels on the stochastic indicator, suggesting the possibility of short-term sideways movement before any attempt to break resistance. In my view, failure to hold above the 4850–4900 range may push the price to retest nearby support zones, especially with emerging signs of gradual weakness in bullish momentum. However, the uptrend remains intact as long as the price continues trading above the 4700 regions.

As for the expected scenario, I believe the market is currently at a critical crossroads. A clear breakout and sustained move above 4900 could drive gold toward targeting the 5000 level and beyond, supported by renewed technical momentum. On the other hand, a break below 4750 may open the door for a deeper correction toward the 4600 levels. Therefore, I approach the current phase with caution, favoring continued consolidation within the current range until a strong catalyst emerges to break this balance.

Supports: 4750 – 4600 – 4450

Resistances: 4900 – 5000 – 5300