Technical Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD): between the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. retail sales data: where is the price heading?

The chart of gold (XAU/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe shows that price is moving within a sideways range with a slight bullish bias, following a clear recovery from lows near 4300, where it managed to form a gradual upward structure supported by a positive trendline. However, bullish momentum has started to weaken near the 4900 area, which represents a strong horizontal resistance zone that coincided with a clear price rejection, pushing the price back toward the 4760–4780 levels. From my perspective, this behavior reflects market indecision between continuing the uptrend or entering a deeper correction.

Technically, we observe that price temporarily broke below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and then retested it from below, which strengthens the likelihood of continued short-term selling pressure, especially with the moving average acting as a strong overhead barrier. Additionally, the Stochastic momentum indicator is showing a bearish crossover from mid-levels, supporting a short-term corrective scenario toward lower levels.

I believe that a clear break and sustained move below the 4700 zone would reinforce further downside toward 4650 and then 4600. On the other hand, a return above 4800 would keep the door open for another retest of the recent peak. In contrast, the medium-term trend still leans bullish as long as price remains above the 4600 zone, which represents an important balance area between buyers and sellers. The most likely scenario, in my view, is a continuation of the upward trend after a mild correction, especially if reversal signals appear near support levels. However, if the 4600 zone is broken decisively, we may see a deeper shift toward 4450–4400, although this remains the weaker probability for now.

Support levels: 4700 – 4650 – 4600

Resistance levels: 4800 – 4900 – 5000