Crude Oil (WTI) Technical Outlook: Between Hope and Escalation — Do Political Tensions Threaten Price Stability?

The 4-hour chart of crude oil (USOIL) shows that the price is currently in a recovery phase following a strong rebound from the demand zone near 84.00, which acted as a key support area after a sharp bearish move. In my view, this rebound reflects clear buying liquidity entering the market, especially as the price remains above the 0.618 Fibonacci level, suggesting an attempt to rebuild short-term bullish momentum. Additionally, holding above the moving average further supports the likelihood of continued recovery, as long as it is not decisively broken.

From a technical perspective, the price is currently facing an important resistance zone around 96.50–98.00, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci level, making it a genuine test area for bullish momentum. If the price manages to break and hold above this zone, we could see an extension toward 100.00 and then 104.00. However, a failed breakout could lead to a retest of nearby support levels, especially given that the Stochastic oscillator is in overbought territory, increasing the probability of a short-term technical correction.

As for the expected scenario, I believe the market is leaning toward a sideways-to-bullish movement in the short term, provided it holds above the 92.00 level. Any clear and sustained break below this level would likely bring back selling pressure and open the door for a retest of 86.00 and then 84.00 again. Overall, the market is currently in a balancing phase between technical recovery and previous selling pressure, making trend confirmation highly dependent on price action around current levels.

Supports: 90.20 – 86.00 – 84.00

Resistances: 92.50 – 100.00 – 104.00